When the stock market zigzags, fortunes are made—not always by accident.
Over the past few years, we’ve watched the market convulse in response to sudden policy shifts: tariffs imposed, tariffs lifted, threats made, threats walked back. And during Donald Trump’s presidency (and hints of a repeat performance), we saw a particularly whiplash-inducing pattern emerge. One day, China is the economic enemy; the next, a deal is “tremendous.” Wall Street shudders, then surges. The Dow drops, then recovers. Repeat.
This isn’t just chaos—it’s currency.
What if, behind this volatile theater, there’s a subtler story unfolding? One of well-timed trades, of market manipulation not through secret memos, but through public policy, performed erratically enough to feel like randomness, but predictably enough to be profitable—for those in the know.
Welcome to the shadow trading economy.
The Big Short, Reimagined
Think back to The Big Short. Investors saw the collapse coming and bet against the market. Now imagine you’re not just predicting a market downturn—you’re creating it. Or at least, you’re privy to the script.
Short the market right before an announcement of new tariffs. Go long before the president lifts them. Rinse, repeat.
It sounds like conspiracy theory. But it’s closer to financial theater with real consequences.
In 2019, ProPublica and others reported on “strangely prescient trades” by individuals close to the Trump administration. While no charges were filed, the timing of certain options trades—just days before announcements that would swing markets—raised the specter of insider advantage.
Tariff Whiplash as Strategy
To most Americans, tariffs were part of a jarring policy strategy. But to a savvy insider with access to privileged information, they were a predictable volatility machine.
What’s more profitable than a bull or bear market? A rodeo. High volatility creates big opportunity—for traders who can get in before the rest of us even know what’s coming.
There’s a reason billionaires love chaos: volatility isn’t a bug, it’s the business model. But here’s the kicker—when volatility is generated from the highest office in the land, the playing field isn’t just uneven; it’s rigged.
Trust, Transparency, and Temptation
I’m not saying Donald Trump, or any specific individual, committed financial crimes. I’m saying the system makes it absurdly easy for people close to power to benefit from erratic governance.
And that’s the real scandal.
Because whether or not the trades were made, the temptation was built into the rhythm of the presidency. Tariff threats as market levers. Policy-by-tweet as a day-trader’s dream. The blurring of political strategy and financial incentive corrodes trust—especially when there’s no transparency and no consequences.
The Takeaway
When policy becomes performance art, the real audience isn’t the American people—it’s Wall Street. And the best seats go to those who helped write the script.
In the end, maybe this is the art of the deal: create instability, then sell the solution. Manufacture chaos, then profit from the calm. Who needs insider trading when you can just cause the market to soar or crash with a single tweet?
It’s not illegal if you’re just “making America great again,” right?
But it’s not democracy, either.
it’d be so relevant today?